Editor’s Note: Welcome to our weekly feature, Analyst Angle. We’ve collected a group of the industry’s leading analysts to give their outlook on the hot topics in the wireless industry.
As 4G smartphones and tablets become more prevalent, iGR has noted a change in consumer behavior – more people are likely to stay stationary while using the new devices. Contrast this behavior with the typical cellular users who, for the last 25 years or so, have moved-and-talked, usually while driving. Recent modifications to this behavior have included texting-while-driving or e-mailing-while-driving – not improvements by any stretch!
Early mobile adopters traditionally leveraged wireless connectivity based on both how and where they were typically commuting. Therefore, the networks were historically designed along commonly used commute routes such as major highways and roads. Simple. Deployments were primarily driven by an agenda focused on providing coverage, which would then be leveraged to deliver the secondary concern, capacity.
As the mobile ecosystem has evolved, so have the users and, subsequently, their expectations. Today end-users are requiring connectivity around the clock on more and more personal devices in order to navigate throughout the day, a life enhanced by available applications and social networking experiences.
Sit. Browse. View.
We initially looked at in-home Wi-Fi and broadband usage and it became apparent that users were expecting the same level of service and connectivity they received in their home outside of their home as well. iGR’s research suggested more subscribers tend to use high-bandwidth 4G devices while stationary. While not impossible, it certainly would be inadvisable to drive and use a tablet, for example, to view a YouTube video. Due to the uptake in data-intensive applications, social networking trends and messaging, users are taking their ability to communicate with their entire network, or manage their entire life, on the go.
What we see here is a growth in activities that were once reserved for the home being pursued in any environment with connectivity. This means that the usage pattern for cellular networks is starting to change, with more data consumed in specific locations at certain times. And by mere design of cities alone, as humans, we are prone to congregate. This concentrated usage creates significant “pain points” in the network at specific times of the day and at specific locations.
GB/hour/KM2
For the past 11 years, iGR has been examining and measuring the growth and use of bandwidth. In the past several months, we applied this knowledge to understanding how this concentrated usage impacted the network. We developed a localized bandwidth usage model that specifically identified concentrated usage by time of day and geographic location.
We evaluated and researched user patterns and behaviors on a typical workday and applied our bandwidth usage methodology to measure this against the current network environment and the developing network environment over the next five years. Again, the goal was to understand by how much is bandwidth demand exceeding what the macro network can support? And when and where was this occurring?
This model is represented in our recent research “Localized Bandwidth Demand Forecast, 2011 – 2016,” and suggests that the extreme localized data spikes, or “pain-points,” throughout a given work will only continue to necessitate the efficient deployment of targeted capacity solutions, such as small cells. And yes, this does account for the availability of LTE and LTE advanced over the forecast period. Additionally, our model further suggests that the problem will only get worse – much worse – further necessitating the rapid deployment of targeted capacity solutions.
Intelligent infrastructure
The answer, of course, is for the mobile operator to deploy additional capacity at those locations to support the new 4G demands. This is the basis of small cell architectures – putting picocells, for example, in a downtown area to provide the necessary capacity around a park or square. And yes, the data capacity could be provided by 4G or Wi-Fi, as appropriate.
But small cells introduce a new problem – one of scale. If many small cells are required to provide the capacity needed, then that means more cells for the mobile operator to install and maintain. Spectrum assets also have to be managed to make sure the necessary network efficiency is attained – as any mobile operator will tell you, spectrum is a finite resource and operators always want more.
The answer to the small cell management problem is self-optimizing networks, which allows an operator to automate parts of the cell installation and management process, thereby reducing capital expenditures and operating expenditures. Our recent research, “Impact of Self Optimizing Networks on U.S. LTE Infrastructure, 2011 2016,” forecasts $2.34 billion in LTE capex savings and $4.5 billion in LTE opex savings with full SON implementation in the United States by 2016.
Since small cells have to be deployed “within” and “under” the macro network, intelligent management of the entire architecture is required. Capacity has to be managed between the macro and pico/femtocells, as well as across macro networks and into Wi-Fi hotspots. So the challenge in the next few years is not simply to provide the data capacity where and when consumers require or to deploy and manage small cells efficiently. The ultimate challenge is understanding how to manage the whole architecture intelligently in real-time to deliver the experience required.
Perspectives evolve
To speak candidly among friends, my opinion is this: While the industry is planning small cell deployments, the consumer is already changing their behavior and impacting the networks. In short, we are already playing catch-up. And we can assume that the end users’ behaviors will continue to change and evolve, worsening the bandwidth demand issue. The resulting economies of scale and technical challenges in the evolution of mobile networks are expected. But, in order for our networks to become smarter, so must we in the way we view the consumer’s usage patterns. Intelligent infrastructure requires agile adaptability on our part. We have identified the problem and we know the solution. The only question is how quickly the industry is going to move to deploy more intelligence in the mobile network along with the small cells, SON and LTE.
Iain Gillott, the founder and president of iGR and iGR Semiconductor Research Inc., is an acknowledged wireless industry authority and accomplished presenter. iGR was founded in 2000 in order to provide in-depth market analysis and data focused exclusively on the wireless and mobile industry. Prior to founding iGR, Gillott was a Group Vice President in IDC’s Telecommunications practice, managing IDC’s worldwide research on wireless and mobile communications. Gillott has a BSc (Hons) degree in Computer Systems Engineering from the University College of North Wales, Bangor, Wales, with a concentration in hardware and software design.
