Editor’s Note: RCR Wireless News asked wireless industry analysts and executives to provide their predictions for what they expect to see in 2012 across their areas of expertise.
Telecom analyst prediction pieces often seem to walk a fine line between, “I think this is going to happen” and “I hope this is going to happen.” I can’t say that I’m immune from this tendency. I’ll do my best to make it clear which side of that line is driving my thinking in terms of the themes I’m looking for in 2012.
–Network architectures: From a technology perspective, LTE is going to dominate mobile network discussions in 2012. More accurately, operators will be talking about LTE while vendors start looking forward to LTE-Advanced. The real fun, however, will be on the network architecture front. Think small cells. Think het-nets. Think low-power, limited-coverage network underlays for capacity injection. Think Wi-Fi, 3G and LTE. No more than a week into the new year, SK Telecom’s announcement of het-net research and development and Mindspeed’s acquisition of Picochip presages a busy year for network architecture innovation.
–CEM meets the device: Customer experience management was the telecom buzzword of 2011 – focused on an understanding of the mobile user’s experience and leveraging this understanding to better monetize network assets thanks to (among other things) OSS/BSS, policy, analytics and traffic management resources. If operators, however, want to really understand the user experience, insights directly from the device are critical. The fact that many conversations around CEM begin and end with the network suggests that pulling devices into the equation is more hope than expectation grounded in reality. The fact that connection manager players are pushing themselves into the space (often beginning with Wi-Fi and offload) and CEM itself is quickly evolving suggests that devices are a natural near-term inclusion.
–Spectrum fragmentation: We heard a lot about spectrum fragmentation in 2011, often backed by the well-worn citation of 40-plus potential bands for LTE services. Squarely on the “hope” side of things, I’d really like to see this rhetoric toned down. Don’t get me wrong, fragmentation is a reality and the need to support so many diverse bands creates a headache for device and network vendors alike. Yet, the concept of a single device SKU that covers all these bands is a fallacy. It’s not necessary since a handful of bands will dominate LTE activity in the near-term and HSPA can support roaming demands. It’s not even a good idea where cramming too may radios into a device could degrade performance … including the network’s coverage and capacity.
