The brave new world of handsets includes no comfort zones (watch out, Nokia!), disruptive influences run rampant, software transcends hardware and micro-segmentation is likely.
These were among the conclusions drawn by analyst Stu Carlaw at an ABI Research session that covered the industry in four 20-minute, data-intensive presentations on Tuesday.
Carlaw reminded his audience that the past three years have seen an “explosion” in feature sets, with phones having shorter life cycles – and getting shorter.
“Watch the UMPC, Internet tablet and smartphone space,” Carlaw said. “The hardware will combine these form factors and vendors will focus as much on software as hardware.”
Limits to devices will mean that mobile applications will be a blend of native and Web-based solutions – Web-based updates can extend the life of a handset, for example. Internet tablets will go to Linux operating systems based on openness and a cost advantage and those OSs will be the result of the industry coalescing around the LiMo Foundation, Android and MIMO.
All according to Carlaw’s crystal ball.
Think the industry is speeding up now? The speed of innovation will increase, the analyst said.
“We’re seeing a rapid shift through technology evolutions, which is carrier-driven, based on network economics,” Carlaw said. “More advanced networks are more efficient, cheaper to run and more likely to offer services that generate ARPU.”
Carriers support the drive to push smart OSs down the price tiers, which speeds time-to-market for new applications and leverages the advantages of their “fat pipes.” The user interface will be increasingly important for differentiation and, thus, ARPU.
That may mean, for instance, that while the current handheld use requires the user to hold the handset to their ear. Soon, Carlaw predicted, the advent of compelling multimedia, gaming and the current messaging craze on Danger-style devices will mean more people will hold the device in front of them, using two hands to operate them.
Carlaw’s colleague, Clint Wheelock, said that devices and the services that run on them “drive the industry today.” And he offered data on United States consumers’ likes and dislikes for various features.
The top features owned but not used by U.S. subscribers include mobile e-mail, Internet browsing, GPS capabilities, mobile video/TV, Wi-Fi and games – seeming the gamut of non-voice applications. In some cases, the market is early (GPS), users are inexperienced (games, TV), pricing models aren’t attractive (games, TV) and use cases are still evolving (Wi-Fi).
The issues now influencing devices will include open access, social networking, mobile payments and mobile marketing, Wheelock said.
Carlaw said that between technologies, feature sets and price points, the global market has seen micro-segmentation. That would seem to favor Nokia Corp., but the Apple Inc. juggernaut shows that disruptive forces are loose as well.
“Microsegmention creates an opportunity for new market entrants,” Carlaw said. “The iPhone is a great example of that. But microsegmentation also favors the incumbents with broad portfolios – thus you have Nokia and its dominant market share.”
“Market share is a great undertaking and if I were Apple I wouldn’t want to try playing that game,” Carlaw said.
And short-term predictions? Say, fourth quarter?
Touchscreens and improved user interfaces, Carlaw said.
Indeed, Nokia has said separately that it would indeed bring its touchscreen solution to market this year – a fully baked, new approach to touch that reflects its holistic approach to devices-and-services, according to its North American president, Mark Louison.
