The United States last week struck a historic trade deal with Vietnam, the communist nation and one-time foe whose name pops up a lot these days as we find ourselves bogged down militarily in another overseas hot spot.
The U.S.-led coalition made it possible for Iraq to enter the Wireless Age in a serious way. Vietnam did it its own way. Iraq, with three national carriers catering to an underserved population of 27 million, is said to have gone from 80,000 mobile-phone subscribers to more than 5 million in three years. Vietnam has 6 million to 11 million mobile-phone subscribers. Both countries have plenty of room for growth. That fact is not lost on wireless and tech firms here and abroad.
The Telecommunications Industry Association said member companies in Vietnam include Motorola Inc., Lucent Technologies Inc., Qualcomm Inc., L.M. Ericsson, Nokia Corp., Alcatel SA, Cisco Systems Inc., Hewlett-Packard Co., IBM Corp., Intel Corp., Juniper Networks Inc., Nortel Networks Ltd. and Siemens AG.
Vietnam appears especially enticing, considering the country’s healthy economic growth, low wireless penetration and an underserved population of 83 million. Vietnam appears on a path to enter the World Trade Organization later this year-perhaps when it hosts the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in November. Vietnam, party to a narrower bilateral trade pact with the U.S. since 2000 (five years after the two countries resumed diplomatic ties), is about to become a full-fledged trading partner of the U.S. and the world.
Six wireless carriers reportedly serve Vietnam these days. It looks competitive enough, but the government has a heavy hand in the telecom sector. Bloody politics aside (58,000 American deaths in Vietnam; 2,470 American deaths to date in Iraq) and wireless teledensity aside, Vietnam is more like China than Iraq when it comes to wireless growth potential. Both communist countries desire the economic riches of capitalism, without feeling obliged to hassle with messy details of democratic political reforms, human rights and rule of law. Control is everything for the governments of Vietnam and China. That’s why the Internet gives them fits and why both exercise censorship with sledge hammers.
The U.S.-Vietnam trade pact, signed in Ho Chi Minh City, still needs Congress’ blessing. Lawmakers must grant permanent normal trade relations standing to Vietnam. That could prompt lively discussion on Capitol Hill, not unlike previous China trade status debates. The wireless industry, meantime, is most interested in turning swords into cell phones in the vast untapped wireless market of Vietnam.
