Hand wringing over third-generation wireless development has apparently turned dysfunctional. Seems that anxious wireless carriers in the U.K. have taken to hiring psychologists for 3G-business strategy guidance, according to a BBC report last week. 3G is coming, and wireless execs across the Atlantic just can’t figure out what consumers want, what makes them tick. It’s all so complicated. Panic attack! Calling Dr. Laura.
Contributing to this gloomy 3G outlook are financial gurus, industry analysts and the omnipresent news media, the same folks who only a year ago talked up the Internet and wireless to the point that European telecom firms felt no guilt about spending $100 billion on 3G mobile-phone licenses. Merrill Lynch jumped on the bandwagon last week.
Granted, it’s a blood bath out there in high-tech land. But this is what has folks spooked about 3G: NTT DoCoMo, which actually is making money from i-mode Internet phone service, said its May 3G launch will be delayed until October. More recently, BT confessed that technical snafus would postpone the Isle of Man 3G debut for a few months. That’s the good news. The more serious concern is that Euro wireless giants will collapse under crushing debt before the first 3G call is made.
Here in the United States there’s talk of delay too, but it’s a different kind. It’s supposedly worse. We’re still working on finding 3G spectrum and crafting service rules, owing to the fact that schools, churches, the Pentagon and others don’t want to give their frequencies to the mobile-phone industry. Very unsociable. Then there’s industry’s inferiority complex about being behind Europe and Asia on 3G. But hold on, how far behind Europe can the U.S. be if European wireless firms are behind the eight ball?
What we have here are a bunch of 3G dates that won’t be met. So what?
All this angst about 3G dates and delays is a bit foolish, though understandable, I suppose. The dates, by and large, are the creation of business executives and bureaucrats. They’re the ones who compulsively feel obligated to win approval from the financial community. Lenders and investors want certainty that 3G will arrive sooner rather than later and that it will work without a hitch from the get-go. In other words, investors want a guaranteed payday. Thus, greed, rather than technological failure or consumer rejection, is fueling the 3G funk.
3G technology will be ready when it’s ready. A delay could be a healthy thing if it allows marketing to catch up with technology, which itself needs time to find itself. If you’re looking for instant gratification, 3G is not for you.
