WASHINGTON-The House, aided by intense Clinton administration and high-tech lobbying as well as legislative commitments to monitor any import surges and human rights, is expected this week to pass a China trade bill representing the biggest export opportunity ever for the U.S. wireless industry.
But it will be close.
As of late last week, following approval by House and Senate committees of permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) with China, the Clinton administration and the Republican leadership in Congress picked up more support from wavering Democrats. Supporters of China trade appear to be closing in on the 218 votes needed to approve the measure in the House.
Senate approval of the bill is virtually assured.
Liberalized trade with China promises to dramatically open wireless equipment and service markets in a nation with 1.3 billion people and inadequate telecom infrastructure.
“A big population has a great need in the information technology and telecommunications fields,” said Liu Zhaodong, minister-counselor of science and technology for the Chinese Embassy, at a conference here last week.
By 2002, China predicts it will have more than 500 million mobile-phone subscribers and more than 500 million Internet users. Given the convergence of wireless and Internet technologies, such growth potential could translate into contracts worth tens of billions of dollars for wireless firms.
To further underscore the value of the Chinese wireless market to the United States and other nations, the Chinese government also forecasts data will exceed voice and mobile will transcend fixed communications eventually.
“We’re still in overdrive to win congressional support,” said Grant Seiffert, vice president of government relations for the Telecommunications Industry Association.
Seiffert said a grass-roots campaign-which includes letter-writing, targeted advertising and personal lobbying last week from Lucent Technologies Inc. Chairman Richard McGinn, Qualcomm Inc. Chairman Irwin Jacobs and others-appears to be paying off.
“It’s a huge opportunity for our companies,” said Seiffert. TIA, a member of a high-tech coalition that has aggressively lobbied for China trade, high-tech visas, electronic signature and Internet tax freedom bills, represents U.S. telecom manufacturers.
High-tech firms also have contributed significant amounts of unregulated soft money to members of Congress in this election cycle.
To help get the vote over the top, President Clinton was to address the nation Sunday night on U.S.-China trade. Despite urging from the White House, two major TV networks-CBS and ABC-opted not to carry the brief speech.
Last Wednesday, Clinton trotted out Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan in the Rose Garden to tout China trade. “We all know that when Chairman Greenspan talks, the world listens,” said Clinton.
And Greenspan delivered. “The outcome of the debate on permanent normal trade relations with China will have profound implications for the free world’s trading system and the long-term growth potential of the American economy,” the Fed chairman stated.
Last year, Clinton agreed to support China’s entry into the World Trade Organization in exchange for trade concessions that would further open China’s wireless equipment market and allow foreign investment in Chinese wireless services up to 50 percent.
On Friday, the European Union and China struck a market-access deal that virtually assures China WTO membership. Negotiations between the EU and China had been bogged down over the EU’s insistence that its 15 member states be permitted to hold a 51-percent equity stake in Chinese telecom services. It was not immediately clear Friday how that dispute was resolved.
With the anticipated passage of the bill, Congress would no longer take up China trade on an annual basis. And Clinton will have notched a major trade victory for his presidential portfolio.
But many Democrats-including House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt (D-Mo.) and House Minority Whip David Bonior (D-Mich.)-either oppose China PNTR or are undecided.
One of those undecideds, Rep. Rod Blagojevich (D-Ill.), announced Friday he will vote `no’ on China PNTR, citing China’s poor human-rights record.
To assuage undecided Democrats, Republicans have agreed to side legislation to monitor-and presumably respond to-any sudden surge in Chinese imports from China and, separately, to create a commission to monitor human rights in China.
But organized labor, which has spent millions of dollars to kill China trade legislation, does not think much of the human-rights commission proposed by Reps. Sander Levin (D-Mich.) and Doug Bereuter (R-Neb.).
John Sweeney, president of the AFL-CIO, called the proposal “a toothless paper solution to a flesh-and-blood problem.”
Last Thursday, AFL-CIO members were to be part of “cell phone drill team” that performed skits and made calls to Rep. Edward Markey (D-Mass.) in hopes of convincing the influential telecom lawmaker to vote against China PNTR.
Critics of the trade bill warn that WTO membership does not guarantee that a major communist power, like China, which lacks a legal foundation of contract law and enforcement, will readily adhere to global trade rules.
