5G caught telecom’s imagination in 2015, as the wireless industry began chasing its dreams of what next-generation networks will look like. 5G technologies aren’t expected to be in commercial deployment until at least the 2020 timeframe, but significant progress is expected to come in 2016 to begin to clarify what, exactly, 5G will be.  The most common expectations include high reliability, incredibly low latency, blazing speed and use cases that range from massive “Internet of Things” deployments to mission-critical communications and control.
Here are five 5G developments likely in the next year.
The start of standards work. At this point, 5G is primarily a buzz word and marketing term, since no standards have been defined. In 2016, the industry will start to see the first steps toward definition and distillation of the hodgepodge of 5G ideas and dreams. 3GPP has established a tentative timeline for 5G development, had an initial workshop on the topic and is expected to approve a radio study item on 5G at its December meeting. A study phase for 5G is expected to be included in Release 14 of LTE (after Release 13 is completed early in 2016), and most observers don’t expect to see 5G specs emerge until Release 15 in the 2018 timeframe and full requirements by the end of 2019.
Continued research and development. 2015 was marked by many R&D partnerships and collaborations set up among carriers, university researchers and various technology-focused consortia around the world. Tod Sizer II, who leads Alcatel-Lucent Bell Labs wireless research program, told RCR Wireless News earlier this year that some of the top areas for research to enable 5G communications will include massive multiple-input/multiple-output antenna technology; centimeter and millimeter wave technologies; cloud, SDN and NFV; multiple radio access technologies, including cellular, Wi-Fi and high-frequency spectrum; and a new air interface, among others.
The International Telecommunications Union has already laid out a vision for next-gen networks of 2020, and the World Radiocommunications Conference spent most of November 2015 in a meeting that included discussion of which spectrum bands are the most likely to be used for 5G in different ITU regions of the world. While the ITU doesn’t anticipate that a 5G standard will be complete until around 2020, the WRC did include a number of spectrum bands above 6 GHz that it wants to see studied for 5G use — particularly between 24.25-86 GHz. That guidance is likely to shape 5G research.
Pre-standard trials and demonstrations. A number of companies have already begun work in 5G channel sounding to determine spectrum propagation behavior at the high frequencies involved, and early link demonstrations and more commercial testing solutions have emerged as well. This work is likely to continue as companies make progress in 5G research and then make their work public. Verizon, for one, has said that it expects to trial 5G technologies starting in 2016.
LTE’s continuing evolution may make 5G business cases more clear — or not. As LTE moves into the LTE-Advanced Pro stage in 2016, with new features focused on IoT, speed and efficiency, 5G will have to prove itself a worthy successor. What use cases can be accomplished with LTE features? To what extent do LTE’s limitations mean a clearer business case for specific 5G features, investments and deployments? In comments at the LTE North America conference, carrier representatives talked about being able to meet many of the proposed 5G use cases with LTE, and made it clear that 5G will have to differentiate itself from advanced LTE deployments in order to win them over.
More buzz and marketing hype. As the industry grapples with its dreams for 5G, one thing is sure to continue — high expectations. We’re early in the hype cycle for a technology that hasn’t even been defined, and the trough of disillusionment is nowhere in sight yet. So the buzz is sure to continue.
Looking for more industry predictions for the coming year? Watch the RCR Wireless 2016 Predictions webinar, or download the special report.
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