Kagan: How 5G wireless will impact you and your company

Wireless is about to go through an enormous transformation that will impact every user, every company and every industry. Are you prepared for this next change wave? How will it impact you, your business and your industry? As a wireless analyst for more than 30 years, I have advised companies, written columns and given speeches on the changing industry. So, let’s take a closer look at how this next change wave will impact you.

Wireless has gone through several major change waves over time. The most recent over the last decade with the iPhone, Android, wireless data and apps changed the industry. The next big change wave has already begun, and it will be the biggest yet. It will impact not only wireless networks, handsets and app makers, but every other industry as well.

5G wireless will impact every person, every investor, every company and every industry

5G will roll in over the next several years. It will not only mean faster networks, but it will also empower other industries and new ideas. People with innovative ideas in other industries will jump in and transform everything we know the same way Uber and Lyft are transforming transportation and the limousine industry.

That means there are incredible growth opportunities, risks and challenges for every one of us.

The next wireless 5G change wave will impact other industries like pay TV. Yesterday, cable TV was delivered to the home over a wire. Increasingly we are seeing the evolving world of pay TV being delivered over the Internet.

Going forward, wireless TV or mobile TV means we will be able to buy new pay TV services and they will be delivered wirelessly. This already started with AT&T DirecTV NOW, wireless TV will show explosive growth over the next several years using 5G technology.

What that means is traditional cable TV companies like Comcast Xfinity, Charter Spectrum and Altice may also deliver wireless TV to stay competitive. The same thing with IPTV like AT&T DirecTV NOW.

The path of wireless pay TV over next few years

I also expect to see wireless carriers begin to offer mobile pay TV services and compete with the traditional industry. And it won’t stop there. Expect wireless TV to be delivered not only by most existing competitors, but by a whole host of smaller and newer ones as well.

I expect to see a wide range of small competitors to enter the wireless pay TV space. There will likely be an explosion of new competitors entering this new space.

This happens every time a new technology is created like wireless or the Internet.

The next wave will take place over the next several years. There will be a consolidation wave. Smaller players will start to merge creating an industry with fewer, but larger competitors. Remember what the wireless industry looked like twenty years ago? It was full of small competitors.

Think of wireless consolidation as example of what to expect with mobile TV

Today, wireless has four major competitor, AT&T Mobility, Verizon Wireless, T-Mobile and Sprint. In fact, AT&T and Verizon have the vast majority of wireless market share. That’s what I think we can expect with wireless pay TV as well.

And this will all be made possible because of wireless. High speed, 5G wireless to be exact.

So, just like with the taxi, limousine and the pay TV industries, every other industry will experience this same kind of transformation with new ideas and new technology.

This raises all sorts of new questions. How do today’s leaders hang onto their position? How do new competitors break in? How do industry workers hang onto their jobs? How do investors make the right choice?

Choose companies on growth side of growth wave

It all comes down to whether you work for a growth company or not. Think of companies as sitting somewhere on the growth curve. What do I mean? The growth curve rises, then crests, then falls. Every company in every industry sits somewhere on that growth curve.

We have seen this impact countless companies over time. Companies are either on the growth side of the growth wave, or they have crested, or they are falling. Once a company crests, it will most likely being to decline.

Companies that are declining are trying to stretch out their previous leadership position for as long as they can. Sometimes they want to transform themselves, but the choices they make are wrong. Ultimately, they fail. We have seen countless companies like Sears, Circuit City, Borders Books and countless others fail.

New companies and new ideas become next leaders

We have also seen new technologies take over the leadership position sending yesterday’s leaders to the back of the pack. Think about how Apple iPhone, Google Android and Samsung Galaxy are now leaders in the smartphone race sending Motorola, Blackberry, Nokia and Palm to the back of the pack.

This has been happening over and over again, to companies over time. Innovation always leads.

So, you need to think about your career. Your investment strategy. Your company growth plans. Are you with a company on the growth side of the growth wave? Or has your company crested? Or has it already started its decline.

If you lead the company, this is an important question. You have to decide whether to cannibalize your own leadership and your own company, or not. If you decide not to do so, then you are deciding to let some other company do it to you.

Cannibalize your own company before a competitor does

It’s really that simple. Your business will be cannibalized. Your industry will innovate. Everything will change. You can’t stop it.

If that’s the case, your only question is this. Will you lead the innovation wave and cannibalize your own company and retain your leadership position the way AT&T and Comcast are doing? Or will you try to keep things as they are for as long as you can the way Motorola, Blackberry, Palm and Nokia are doing.

You can’t stop change. You can’t stop the transformation of your industry and your company with new technology and new competitors entering the space on a regular basis.

Your only choice is to lead the industry transformation. What’s the old saying… either lead or die.

So, you must ask yourself, will you continue to lead or not? Will you continue to transform or not? The choice and the result are obvious to see. The choice is yours whether you lead a company or work for a company in a changing industry. Choose well.