With the end of 2010, I’ve been reflecting on the past decade and all that has changed. It seems impossible to me that 2000 was over 10 years ago; not in that “Wow where has the time gone?” sense but rather in a “I can’t believe how much has changed” sense. Ten years ago real estate prices were still high, gas prices were still relatively low, and nobody had ever heard of Al Qaeda. I could waltz through San Jose International Airport security 30 minutes before boarding time with my shoes on, a large coffee in my hand, and not have to wonder whether or not I’d miss my flight because I was the lucky recipient of a complimentary shiatsu massage by a government employee.
Technology and the Silicon Valley business landscape has of course changed greatly since 2000. Ten years ago venture capitalists were still convinced that they were invincible, and most firms had given up doing investments unless the round was over $10 million because anything less was not “real money.” Venture capitalists in 2000 were still investing in semiconductors, and Wi-Fi was rapidly becoming an over-subscribed sector – with the wave of massive consolidation still over three years away.
Silicon Valley residents who wanted the latest in cool could obtain wireless data service from Metricom’s Ricochet network at a blistering-fast 28.8 Kbps which wasn’t much slower than the 56 Kbps dial-up modem I had back at home. If you were very lucky, you lived in a neighborhood that was close to a telco central office and you could get DSL. If not; you were stuck with your dial-up or ISDN. In 2000 my cellphone had the ability to send text messages, but I rarely sent them because nobody knew what they were or even how to send a reply. There was no TiVo, no Netflix, no Hulu. Google was on the rise, but most searching was done via AltaVista or Yahoo.
Setting aside the more superficial changes to life in the Silicon Valley; it’s really the employment landscape that has changed more radically than anything. In 2000 full employment with large stock options was the rule, not the exception. Sarbanes-Oxley was still two years away, and liquidity via IPO was still making janitors and receptionists into overnight millionaires.
Dissolve (as they say in the movies) to Silicon Valley 2010. Corporate employment is up, simply because many people who were at startups have been acquired (in most cases happily so) by large companies that went on buying sprees when pre-IPO valuations plunged due to capital flight or the inability of the startup to secure funding to cover costs of meeting Sarbanes-Oxley requirements needed to reach a successful IPO. For those of us who chose to remain outside the corporate juggernauts life is very different; many are free-lancing and carrying a constantly changing set of multiple business cards. In 2000, hiring managers at startups would often say “We’re pre-IPO, so your base salary won’t be great but you’ll make it up in lots of stock options.” In 2010, hiring managers at startups will often say “We’re still pre-funding, so your base salary will be zero but you’ll make it up in lots of stock options.” You’d think this would be a hard sale to make for the hiring manager, but you’d be wrong because to a “startup person” i.e. someone who gets off on the adrenaline of starting a new company there’s nothing worse than not working – even if it means working for free in the hopes of getting paid later. Even the name “Silicon Valley” has become ironic since 2000. Most semiconductor foundries have moved overseas, and venture capital stopped funding semiconductor startups years ago.
The past decade’s changes to the Silicon Valley’s employment landscape may sound like a lot of doom and gloom, and so you may be surprised when I say that I think the Valley’s best days are still ahead of us. As always the Silicon Valley endures by tapping a seemingly bottomless well of flexibility, ingenuity, and willingness to adapt. Yes traditional semiconductor is largely gone, but most of the semi folks have made the jump into photovoltaic solar and battery technology companies. Tesla chose to make their electric sports car here, not in some industrial town in the Midwest. Smart phones aren’t actually made here anymore, but nobody cares because mobile applications, middleware and ubiquitous cloud computing are hot sectors – and if the Dot-Com boom taught us one thing, it was how to write great software.
Silicon Valley may be no longer the place where things are built, but it remains the place where ideas are born – and this is evidenced by the fact that every company who wants to be relevant (domestic or international) has a presence here. With five University of California campuses, a slightly higher number of California State Colleges, Stanford University and Santa Clara University, and numerous private universities – all within 100 miles of San Jose – it’s unlikely that the flow of ideas will stop any time soon. There will be challenges, but overcoming challenges is our specialty. As president of the Wireless Communications Alliance, I have the honor and privilege to meet and work with a large number of our local entrepreneurs and while their technology focus has changed over time one thing remains constant; their passion to innovate, to create, to challenge the status quo and build something great never wanes. In 2000, I had no idea what life in 2010 would be like, just as I have no idea what 2020 has in store for us. But I am certain of one thing; the Silicon Valley will adapt and endure as it always has, and I can’t wait to see what we come up with during the next 10 years.
