If this keeps up, “Can you hear me now?” may just become, “Have you gotten this text yet?” And network operators are scrambling to make sure the answer is yes.
The average U.S. mobile user now sends and receives more test messages than they do phone calls, according to data released last week by Nielsen Mobile. While the average number of calls remained relatively steady over the past two years – hovering just above 200 per month – SMS usage has surged, exploding from an average of 65 texts per month in the first quarter of 2006 to 357 per month in the second quarter of 2008. And teens are leading the way, with 13- to 17-year-olds sending or receiving an average of 1,742 messages per month.
Just how many of those messages are getting delivered in a timely fashion – or at all – is uncertain, however. Carriers made their networks SMS-interoperable years ago, but there are still plenty of ways for missives to get held up or lost along the way.
“When a user on one network sends a message to a user on another network, that’s actually going through two different gateways, two SMSCs (Short Message Service Centers),” said Steve Zitnik, EVP of technology at Interop Technologies, a Florida-based firm that recently introduced its latest SMSC line. “Whenever there’s a handoff, even a small one, there’s a chance for something to go wrong. . And there are differing best practices at each of the gateway providers, so they’ll handle things a little bit differently. Some will queue (messages), some don’t, some pass everything through.”
Mess in mass
And that’s just on the back end. Once a message is received by the network it must be transmitted to the handset, of course. And while that’s not usually a problem for the one-to-one “conversations” that account for most SMS activity, it might mean trouble for a text that’s blasted to hundreds or even thousands of users in the same area.
“What you’ll find is that as we move into the kinds of services where everybody wants an update on the Cubs score or a severe weather alert – I wouldn’t say it’s easy, but it’s possible to overload a cell site,” Zitnik continued. “The problem is, it’s analogous to everybody in the entire cell site deciding to make a call at the same time. We know that the network isn’t necessarily engineered to do that.”
Which is why the wireless industry supported voluntary participation in the Warning, Alert and Response Network President Bush signed into law two years ago. Carriers have consistently lobbied that SMS can be a stop-gap solution for an emergency alert system, but that other, more reliable means will be necessary for long-term solutions.
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Lack of clarity
Just how reliable SMS is, though, is difficult to determine. Multiple links in the message-delivery chain make it difficult to determine what percentage of messages attain “availability,” reaching their intended destination within a certain window. While many players claim reliability rates of “five nines” – 99.999% availability – those figures represent only one link in the chain, if they’re accurate in the first place.
That lack of transparency was underscored several weeks ago in the wake of Barack Obama’s effort to notify his supporters of his vice presidential nominee via text message. Nearly 3 million mobile users received a note in the wee hours that Joe Biden would fill out the ticket, but Keynote Systems suggested many registered users didn’t get the message in a timely fashion.
A venerable player in the online-measurement space, Keynote has yet to gain much traction in wireless. But the company attracted attention – and raised a few eyebrows – when it claimed as many as 50% of those who signed up for the alert “may not” have received the message within 90 seconds of its transmission.
That figure – massaged as it may have been – was heatedly contested by sources close to the campaign. But as carriers increasingly lean on SMS to drive data revenues, even a mere 1% loss rate may be costly. U.S. operators continue to enjoy surging uptake of SMS even as they hike texting fees dramatically. Text messaging is expected to maintain its lead as the highest revenue generator across all messaging categories, according to a recent report from ABI Research, generating a staggering $177 billion in 2013.
Marketing advantage
Of course, carriers will be looking to make that traffic as efficient as possible in order to maximize profits. Verizon Wireless, for instance, quietly dropped an SMS confirmation service that informed texters that their message had reached its target.
And just as U.S. carriers continue to tout their coverage areas and signal strengths, they may soon seek to differentiate themselves by flexing their SMS muscles. That’s a pitch that may resonate with the youngsters who spend more time triple-tapping than they do talking.
“Two years ago you may have decided to move or change carriers because you’re getting a lot of dropped calls,” Damian Sazama, VP of marketing and product development for Interop, said hopefully. “Today, if you’re a 16-year-old kid, because the service has become as important as voice, I think you’ll see the same evolution happen with texting. You’re definitely going to see customers demand solid text messaging services.”