WiMAX Forum: 100 more operators to launch service this year
Fixed providers to offer as enhanced DSL in U.S.
March 2 2009 - 11:43 am ET | Gary E. Salazar | RCR Wireless News
An interactive, online map by the WiMAX Forum and Informa Telecoms & Media’s World Cellular Information Service (WCIS) offers information on the many WiMAX deployments across the globe.
Click here to access the map.
With investments already made into WiMAX, the wireless broadband technology will be able to withstand the current economic downturn in a year that will see some additional network deployments, according to the WiMAX Forum.
Because of the current economic climate, WiMAX providers are not being as aggressive with network deployments, but the forum estimates at least 100 more operators will launch commercial services this year.
“Due to the financial situation, the growth rate of deployments will slow down,” said Dr. Mohammad Shakouri, the forum’s VP of marketing. “Everyone is watching their cash.”
The forum also expects for WiMAX to continue to capitalize on its head start on LTE, a next-generation technology that is being spearheaded by Verizon Wireless in the U.S.
Invested
Some analysts have a different take on how WiMAX and LTE figure into the market.
Shakouri questions the willingness of companies to invest in LTE because of the current economic downturn. He said WiMAX does not face this issue because investments have already been made in the technology as network deployments grew rapidly in 2008. Intel Corp. remains committed in backing the technology.
There are 455 WiMAX deployments globally in 135 countries, according to the forum. The technology covers more than 430 million people and the forum expects for that number to double by 2010.
However, growth in the United States has been slow and Shakouri said he is hopeful money set aside for broadband deployments in the $787 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act can help jump start WiMAX operators.
Congress has set aside $7.2 billion for telecom-related programs, with $6.39 billion to be doled out in grants and loans to promote broadband in rural areas that don't have access to the technology or are underserved.
“There is a chance the stimulus package can open some doors,” Shakouri said.
Clearwire centric
Growth in the United States heavily depends on the joint venture by Sprint Nextel Corp. and Clearwire Corp. as the companies control the majority of the spectrum for the technology. So far, WiMAX is being offered in just two cities, Baltimore and Portland, Ore.
The forum is forecasting U.S. subscribers to reach close to 4 million this year and explode to 18 million by 2012.
How fast Clearwire builds out the WiMAX network will depend on the company’s finances, Shakouri said.
“We are hopeful the stimulus package and the dynamics of the market can speed this along,” he said.
After the stimulus package was approved by the government, Clearwire officials said the company would explore whether to go after the grants and loans that will be available.
Fixed vs. mobile
According to research firm In-Stat, WiMAX will continue to outpace LTE over the next few years and the technologies will take different paths. Verizon Wireless is expected to launch LTE commercially sometime next year but most operators will wait until 2011 or 2012.
In-Stat claims operators that will deploy WiMAX will come from the fixed network space while early operators supporting LTE will be mobile providers. In-Stat forecasts LTE will have 23 million subscribers by 2013.
In-Stat analyst Daryl Schoolar said in a statement that operators that choose WiMAX will do so as an enhanced DSL service, and providers that choose LTE will look to increase capacity and peak rates on their existing mobile networks.
Shiv Bakhshi, an IDC analyst, counters that WiMAX and LTE will serve different segments of the market. Bakhshi said WiMAX will be a strong player in developing countries. However, the technology will have trouble competing in developed countries because of other broadband technology that is already in place and the momentum LTE has gained among the top wireless providers. Bakhshi said WiMAX in developed countries will serve niche markets.
Consolidation ahead
The WiMAX Forum also expects for consolidation to occur in the WiMAX market among infrastructure vendors because of the economic downturn. Nortel Networks Corp. has ceased its WiMAX division as the company moves through bankruptcy proceedings and Alcatel-Lucent has said it will cut back in WiMAX spending.
“We expect consolidation in the market, but there are more than enough players,” Shakouri said.
Although, mobile WiMAX has made some gains globally, evolution of the next generation of the technology has already started. Shakouri said standards are being created this year for the second phase of WiMAX that will have faster speeds and trials of the technology could happen as soon as next year.
In the meantime, the forum is expecting more devices with WiMAX capabilities to become available this year. The forum projects there will be 100 certified products on the market this year and the number will grow to 1,000 by 2011. The forum also expects growth to continue in Asia, Europe, Latin America and Africa.
“We don’t see one region that is dominant in regard to growth,” Shakouri said. “We see growth happening in all these regions.”
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An Amazing thing happened on Feb 27 2009. David Bowman released the DBowman wireless networking open source to the world. What this does, is allow individuals, neighborhoods and communities to build and deploy 10 megabit upstream and downstream FSO "Free Space Optical" networks themselves. The full information on the needed components and materials (all available locally) and installation information is available from David Bowman.To hear his official announcement on Rick Tobin's Road To Ready program go to http://ricktobin.com/roadtoready/past_shows/pastshows.html and select Show 44. This one has the telco's very uneasy as if a community chooses to do this, they can offer free or "$5" 10 megabit access to the entire community, including underserved or rural areas where Telcos wont go because it is not profitable. No digging required!By the way, the FSO units can be build by non technology people including people with disabilities and as projects in shop classes in schools for such things as Neighborhood access projects.David made a comment that stuck with me, he said, broadband access is in this century a right. It should not be available to only those that must pay high prices for it. That is why he has brought his proven FSO to the world Open Source.-Steve
Next week, CBS Sports will be promoting the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament by informing their viewers on TV that they can freely watch the tournament whereever they have an Internet connection at CBSSports.com. In turn, millions of viewers will watch the games on their computers and tune into the live game feeds.Major League Baseball is selling selling subscriptions for fans to watch their favorite teams' games out of market over MLB.com.Not once will you see any disclaimer that if you view the events on your computer, you could be subject to using 200MB of data for each hour you watch the games.This can be an expensive proposition for Verizon, AT&T and Sprint subscribers to their 3G wireless products.Consumers have been trained over the years to access the Internet for a certain price for unlimited service. As I agree, 5GB is a large amount of data usage for a month of service. 98% of subscribers do not go over the threshhold of 5GB of data usage, but as more and more opportunities come over the Internet to stream video for events and activities, those numbers will increase.The average consumer does not know how much data they are utilizing. When they purchase a wireless telephone, they know how many minutes they are consuming, up to the second but data usage is very difficult to track. The wireless companies provide a data usage button on their access managers, however the data usage statistics are only accurate up to the previous day and do not reflect realtime statistics of usage.I think the wireless companies have gotten themselves into this mess with very poor policy decisions made by people who do not know what they are doing. If they do not want consumers to surf the net the way they did before they purchased a 3G data card, why are they even selling data cards? Why are they allowing companies like Netgear, Kyocera, D-Link, Cradlepoint and Linksys to build 3G wireless routers so customers can share their 3G connection and further tack on the bandwidth?I believe the plantiff in this case has an excellent chance of defeating the companies. CONTRACT OR NO CONTRACT, NO CONSUMER SHOULD EVER RECEIVE A BILL OF THOUSANDS OR EVEN HUNDREDS OF DOLLARS WHEN THEY ARE EXPECTING TO PAY $59.99 A MONTH WHICH IS ALREADY AN INFLATED PRICE TO SURF THE INTERNET! Especially without a warning of some kind.Personally, I sell these products and I warn each and every customer about the usage threshhold. However, customers will be customers and most do not even understand how to properly use their computer and with the low prices for netbooks, many are getting their first computer and since the prices are so low, they are purchasing these computers for each member of their family, along with a wireless router to share the connection. When events like March Madness, MLB and even things on Youtube, Facebook and MySpace show up, this attracts the masses. They do not realize there is a "pay to play" consequence involved as they are more inclined to use their computer the same way they watch TV because that is why they are paying the cable or satelite companies the high fees in the first place.$59.99 a month for 3G wireless Internet access is high enough. When you are expecting a $59.99 bill in the mail and it is hundreds, if not thousands of dollars more, WITHOUT WARNING, there is a problem and what do the wireless companies expect to happen, as they are selling these products to consumers and are promoting the products on billboards and commercials during prime viewing time on TV?These policies were put into place by these companies by executives who really do not know what they are doing. These are voice policies for data usage and they are wrong. 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