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Kagan: Is BlackBerry at the end of its lifespan?

Remember the early days of the smartphone revolution when BlackBerry led the pack? Back then it was a battle between BlackBerry and Palm. Ah, the good old days. Thinking about it reminds me of the good old days after the Ford Model T hit the market. Not that I was around, but it was the first automobile with a mass market appeal. Both BlackBerry and Model T were revolutionary and both ushered in a new era. But in the end, both the BlackBerry and the Model T overstayed their welcome.
The Model T stuck around for many years without an update. However, with so little competition, they continued to sell. Today, Ford competes with a wide variety of auto makers and they must deliver tomorrow, today, or they will lose to the competition. Innovation is a regular occurrence or companies simply become irrelevant.

BlackBerry and Ford Model T

Same with BlackBerry. During their heyday in the late 1990s and early 2000s, they were king of the hill. They led the smartphone world. They evolved from a super-pager to a device was both a phone and a pager. Over the years they continued to improve and update their technology which was good.
The problem was they never focused on the consumer, which turned out to be a much bigger marketplace than anyone expected. Just ask Apple with their iPhone and Google with their Android. BlackBerry, which owned this segment, didn’t innovate to the next level so they collapsed under their own weight.
And it wasn’t just the move toward the consumer market, but it was the explosion of apps. When BlackBerry rules the smartphone world only had a few hundred apps. Today there are well over one million apps and growing.
BlackBerry should have seen they were right in the path of this runaway smartphone train and it was going to mow them down if they didn’t prepare. They didn’t. It did.

Warning to BlackBerry

I warned them every way I could. I wrote columns, talked about it in speeches and over breakfasts and dinners with executives at a variety of meetings, but they didn’t agree with me. Too bad, because BlackBerry was a great brand that the marketplace could use today.
Unfortunately, BlackBerry let their brand crest and fall and today they are a wounded soldier trying to walk again. They are like our dear old grandpa who we will always love, but who is outdated. They are like our first boyfriend or girlfriend, perfect at the time, but their time has passed.
During the last several years they tried to salvage the brand, but took small steps and none of them worked. Now they are trying to work with Android, finally, but, to tell you the truth, I believe it may be too late.
BlackBerry has seen its growth wave rise, crest and fall. Today it will take much more than just another Android competitor. Today they don’t stand any better a chance to succeed in the handset business then any of the other Android handsets who are struggling. And there are plenty of them.

What’s next for BlackBerry?

I think BlackBerry will finally decide to pull out of the handset market they once led. I think they will try and work with other handset makers and become a software company delivering a BlackBerry solution to a problem that may no longer exist.
BlackBerry is trying. I will give them that. They are a good company, with good people, they just thought that because they were a leader, they would remain a leader. That was their mistake.

BlackBerry Arrogance

Their arrogance caught them with their shorts down. They should have expanded beyond the business sector to the consumer market. They should have empowered their app market to grow from the few hundred to more than a million today.
However, they didn’t. Apple and Google did. So now BlackBerry is paying the price. Unfortunately, this once marketplace leader with loads of avid followers has now failed. When you are a leader you must be more aware of competition who can transform the industry and win your position from you.
This is an important lesson every competitor must learn. That means Apple, Google and Samsung. Either you are a leader or a follower. If you are a leader, you must continue to blow up and re-create your own marketplace before a competitor does. That is always the best solution.
Sure you cannibalize your own business, but you remain the leader. That’s better than a competitor doing it, taking your business and sending you to the funny farm, isn’t it? Just a thought.

ABOUT AUTHOR

Jeff Kagan
Jeff Kaganhttp://jeffkagan.com
Jeff is a RCR Wireless News Columnist, Industry Analyst, Key Opinion Leader and Influencer. He shares his colorful perspectives and opinions on the companies and technologies that are transforming the industry he has followed for 35 years. Jeff follows wireless, wire line telecom, Internet, Pay-TV, cable TV, AI, IoT, Digital Healthcare, Cloud, Mobile Pay, Smart cities, Smart Homes and more.